Kiruhura, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | “Mugisha Muntu’s character has helped me sell the party and sell myself as a candidate,” said Kabarangira Rosemary, the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) Kiruhura District Woman MP flag-bearer.
Indeed, Muntu is often praised as a paragon of exceptional virtues that are ‘unessential’ in Uganda’s political environment. At a press conference officially announcing exit from Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) in September, 2018, he said; “There is nothing in my life that I have focused on more time than building of character.” Now, his character is being used to sell the party.
ANT entered the race for four out five seats parliamentary seats in greater Kiruhura (Kiruhura and Kazo districts). It’s only in Kashongi Constituency, Kiruhura where the party has no candidate. ANT also has a candidate in the Kazo district chairmanship race. It’s the only opposition party that managed to field such a number of candidates in the area.
The Forum for Democratic Change -FDC for instance, has only one candidate—Asiimwe Joseph who is in the Kashongi parliamentary race. The National Unity Platform -NUP’s only one candidates in greater Kiruhura, Mugizi Jonan is vying for Kitura sub-county councillorship, according to the Electoral Commission data URN has obtained.
Fielding candidates doesn’t mean they will win because no opposition candidate has ever even polled 10 percent in Kiruhura. But fielding them in the president’s home turf where it is not uncommon for opposition to complain of intimidation and claim there is always massive voting rigging isn’t a mean accomplishment. It’s also a feat that FDC for instance didn’t achieve in the previous elections.
Kabarangira Rosemary and three other ANT candidates the URN reporter interviewed say they have been welcomed by voters who are eagerly embracing the ANT message they propagate.
Kabarangira said she has not been intimidated by anyone during campaigns. “I have not found any challenge at the moment because I do my things systematically,” she said. “We are trained to do things strategically. It’s not a question of being opposition, or making noise or doing wrong things because your opposition.”
Tumusiime Apollo, the party Nyabushozi Constituency flagbearer and Kiruhura district coordinator said when they go to people, they speak of party values and what it stands for. Two political analysts in Kiruhura argued that unlike FDC and NUP, ANT is viewed as a “friendly force,” hence the easy ride its getting. Tumusiime says he is unsure if other parties have been reaching out to voters and what kind of reception they are getting. He is also uncertain if they are “taken as friendly to NRM.”
Dismissing the “NRM-friendly” tag, he argued that security operatives brand them as opposition. For instance, he claimed that some of his agents have been intimidated. “Just a few days ago, I was meeting with my agents in some sub-counties and hours later, some people would come and intimidate my agents. My any agents are a bit scared,” he claimed when URN interviewed on 7th November.
Tumusiime says they have not had encounters with security agencies because they follow the law to the last dot.
Kenneth Ndyabitunga, the ANT coordinator for Kazo says they also sensitizing voters on their voting rights and why they should look beyond NRM candidates when making choices. He also says he has had bouts of intimidation.
But Nkaija Wilson, the Kazo district NRM chairman says ANT leaders should stop lying of intimidation and threats. He termed their accusations a sign of fear. “Those are just excuses, we don’t know yet who the opposition candidates contesting are . How can we threaten people that we don’t know?”
ANT in Kazo, Ndyabitunga says, chose a house to house campaign strategy. They also using the campaign it to sensitize people on how vote and guard against vote rigging.
As a URN reporter chatted with Ndyabitunga on an evening two weeks ago, a woman came and whispered to him that she had a group that was waiting for him.
What will be success?
Politicians don’t foretell doom for themselves. And in Kiruhura, some ANT candidates say they will win if they are not massively rigged by the NRM. “Minus rigging, because what NRM has here are professional vote thieves, without rigging, Muntu will get 75 percent,” Ndyabitunga forecasts.
Tumusiime doesn’t have a precise forecast; he argues theoretically that it is people to decide. “If people believe in us, well and good, and if they don’t they will rally behind a candidate of their choice.”
Kajwengwe Wilson, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) flagbearer for Nyabushozi constituency argues that ANT interest is not to win the constituency but they are establishing the base.“If they are able to field a parliamentary candidate and a woman MP, we can’t dismiss them,” he says.
Existence of opposition candidates, Kajwengwe says, is indicative that though Nyabushozi is the president’s home constituency is a liberal area.
The success of the party in greater Kiruhura will be determined by how it polls in next year’s elections both presidential, parliamentary and local government. Muntu will be relatively successful if he polls more than 1.4 percent that Amama Mbabazi scored in 2016 or if ANT candidates score more than what other opposition candidates have scored in the past election cycles.
It will also be determined by openness of those who will vote for ANT. For instance, when a URN reporter visited the village where Kitongole Polling station is situated in Kitaganya Parish, Engari Sub-county, Kazo district, where Besigye scored 108 (33 percent) votes in 2016, he couldn’t find any person who identifies him or herself as a Besigye supporter. They live under the fear of NRM.
“Time is the best judge,” Muntu said in September 2018. January 2021 will be the best time to weigh the optimism that ANT supporters in Kiruhura exude.
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